Poleward expansion of the hadley circulation in CMIP5 simulations   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

胡永云  陶利军  刘骥平 《大气科学进展》2013,30(3):790-795

Observational analyses have demonstrated that the Hadley circulation has expanded poleward in recent decades. Important issues are what caused the widening of the Hadley circulation and whether the observed widening is related to anthropogenic forcing. In the present study, we use currently available simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase-5 (CMIP5) to analyze changes in the width of the Hadley circulation. It is found that CMIP5 historical simulations with greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing generate a total widening of ～0.15o0.06o in latitude (10 yr)-1 for the period 1979--2005, and the widening in CMIP5 historical simulations with all forcings is ～0.17o0.06o per decade. Similar to that in CMIP3, the simulated poleward expansion in CMIP5 is much weaker than the observational reanalyses. In CMIP5 projection simulations for the 21st century, magnitudes of widening of the Hadley circulation increase with radiative forcing. For the extreme projected radiative forcing of RCP8.5, the total annual-mean widening of the Hadley circulation is ～0.27o0.04o(10 yr)-1 in the 21st century. Although CMIP5 underestimates observed poleward expansion of the Hadley circulation, the results of this study suggest that the observed trends in the width of the Hadley circulation are caused by anthropogenic forcing and that increasing GHGs play an important role in the observed poleward expansion of the Hadley circulation, in addition to other forcings emphasized in previous studies.  相似文献   

赤潮微藻对指状许水蚤生殖、生长和发育的影响     

周媛  周斌  王悠  刘泳  唐学玺 《中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版)》2010,40(10)

在实验室条件下研究了4种赤潮微藻:中肋骨条藻(Skeletonema costatum)、赤潮异弯藻(Heterosigma akashi-wo)、塔玛亚历山大藻(Alexandrium tamarense)和东海原甲藻(Prorocentrum donghaiense)以及赤潮异弯藻不同组分对海洋桡足类指状许水蚤(Schmackeria inopinus)生殖、生长和发育的影响。结果表明:(1)4种赤潮微藻能够显著延迟指状许水蚤的抱卵时间并导致抱卵率的降低(P0.05),塔玛亚历山大藻、东海原甲藻和赤潮异弯藻导致指状许水蚤卵囊发育所需时间和抱卵间隔时间的明显延长(P0.05),与对照组相比差异显著;(2)4种赤潮微藻明显抑制了指状许水蚤的发育过程(P0.05),其中赤潮异弯藻作用最为显著;(3)赤潮异弯藻4种组分:细胞液、细胞破碎液、细胞过滤液和细胞重悬浮液均能够延迟指状许水蚤抱卵时间,降低其抱卵率,同时藻细胞过滤液、藻细胞重悬浮液和藻细胞液显著延长了指状许水蚤卵囊发育时间和抱卵间隔时间(P0.05);4种组分均可对指状许水蚤的发育产生明显影响(P0.05),但只有藻细胞液对其生长影响显著(P0.05)。结果表明,4种赤潮微藻均能对指状许水蚤的生殖、生长和发育过程产生不利影响,进而对其生活史特征和种群数量产生影响。  相似文献   

Noah-MP模型中积雪模拟对参数化方案的敏感性评估     

尤元红  黄春林  张莹  侯金亮 《地球科学进展》2019,(4):356-365

针对Noah-MP模型多参数化方案、模拟结果不确定性范围难以确定的特点,选取北疆地区具有代表性的阿勒泰站气象资料作为模型驱动数据,探讨了积雪对多参数化方案的敏感性。在不考虑模型参数和驱动数据不确定性的条件下,设计了集合数为13824的多参数化方案集合模拟试验。选用Natural selection方法对物理过程的敏感性进行分析,并在敏感性分析结果的基础上进一步讨论了模拟结果的不确定性。结果表明:积雪对地表热交换、雨雪分离、土壤温度底层边界条件和第一层积雪或土壤时间方案4个物理过程敏感;在不考虑驱动数据和模型参数不确定性的条件下,多参数化方案集合模拟试验中的不确定性主要来源于敏感物理过程。去除敏感物理过程中能够明显降低模拟性能的参数化方案后,集合模拟结果的不确定性大幅减小。最后,根据分析结果构建了该站雪深和雪水当量模拟的最优参数化方案组合。  相似文献   

Dynamic Relationship Between Entrainment Rate and Summer Monsoon in the Transition Area of Monsoon in the East of Northwest China     

Yanying Li  Ying Cai  Chunyan Zhang  Ting Zeng  Jiping Yang 《地球科学进展》2019,34(12):1316-1327

Entrainment rate refers to the ratio of surrounding air quality to air quality involved in rising unit distance, including turbulent entrainment and dynamic entrainment, which are applied to the boundary layer parametrization of convective clouds, the improvement of numerical model, the observation of cloud droplet spectral dispersion and the study of tropical cyclones.Based on the daily data at 07:00 and 19:00 every 10 m of five stations such as Minqin, Yuchong, Pingliang, Yinchuan and Yan'an from May to September during 2006-2016, combined with the daily observation data on the ground, the Entrainment Rates(ER) of different heights were calculated, and the relationships between ER and height in different regions, precipitation as well as monsoon during the monsoon period were further obtained. The main results were as follows:\mathrm{①} The ER was proportional to air temperature and saturated water vapor pressure, but inversely proportional to relative humidity. The relative humidity threshold of cloud was 65%. The higher the relative humidity threshold was, the lower the cloud height of different orders of precipitation was, and the cloud height was higher with the increase of rainfall. \mathrm{②}ER had obvious diurnal changes and regional differences: It was obviously smaller at 07:00 than at 19:00 from ground to 3 km, which weakened with the increase of height in the near surface , but strengthened with the increase of height above 500 m; From small to large, the monsoon affected area, the monsoon swing area and the non-monsoon area were in turn, and there was no regional difference above 3 km. \mathrm{③} ER was closely related to the intensity and property of precipitation in monsoon period. The ER weakened with the enhancement of rain intensity from near ground to below 600 m, but strengthened with the enhancement of rain intensity from 500 m to 2~3 km.From near ground to below 700 m, the ER of stable precipitation was strong, but that of convective precipitation was strong above 700 m. The convective precipitation had big saturated water vapor pressure and strong ER , while the stable precipitation had big saturated water vapor density, rich water vapor but weak ER. \mathrm{④}The relationship between ER and monsoon as well as its duration: From no monsoon to monsoon ER was weakened, the strongest maximum height was also decreasing. There was no significant difference in the duration of ER between the non-monsoon area and the monsoon affected area, but the longer the monsoon swing area lasted in the near ground layer, the smaller the ER was, while the opposite was at 1~2 km in the high altitude. \mathrm{⑤}The relationship between ER and the APO monsoon intensity index showed that: At 07:00, the ER strengthened with height from near ground to below 800 m, but weakened with height above 800 m,and the monsoon intensity was not related to the ER. At 19:00, the ER strengthened with the height near ground but weakened with the height above 300 m, and the stronger the monsoon was, the smaller the ER was. The ER weakened with the decrease of boundary layer height.  相似文献   

场地划分标准对基岩地震动参数衰减关系的影响   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

王珊  张郁山  尤贺 《震灾防御技术》2014,9(4):759-769

基于美国NGA强震观测数据库中描述场地的不同指标,定义了五种不同的"基岩"场地类型,得到了相应的数据集;同时采用最小二乘法回归得到了世界范围内对应不同"基岩"定义的地震动参数衰减关系,并研究了不同场地划分标准造成的基岩地震动参数衰减关系的差异。  相似文献   

陆态网络GNSS基准站阶跃偏移量的精确估计     

梁洪宝  朱爽  王友  顾焕杰 《震灾防御技术》2014,9(S1):622-631

通过对发生阶跃的GNSS基准站坐标序列谱指数的求解,表明了其具有有色噪声的特性,并对三分量分别建立了最优噪声模型,以此对GNSS基准站坐标的阶跃偏移量进行了精确估计,探明了地震和仪器更换对测站产生的精细影响。同时利用求解的阶跃偏移量对坐标序列进行修正,对获取连续性变化的测站坐标序列和获取精确的测站三维运动参数具有重要意义。  相似文献   

面向对象的极高海拔区水体及冰川信息提取——以珠穆朗玛峰国家级自然保护区核心区为例   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

张继平  刘林山  张镱锂  聂勇  张学儒  张琴琴 《地球信息科学学报》2010,12(4):517-523

极高海拔地区多为河流发源、冰川发育地,由于地形起伏强烈,且野外考察验证工作困难,传统的遥感信息提取方法很难保证该地区水体及冰川的提取精度。本文基于ASTER影像,运用面向对象的图像信息自动分析方法,对珠穆朗玛峰国家级自然保护区核心区的水体及冰川信息进行了提取研究。为保证信息提取的准确度,将数字高程模型(DEM)及其衍生数据(坡度、坡向),归一化植被指数(NDVI)数据,及有助于区分水体、冰川与其他地物的相关指数(冰雪指数NDSII)及波段运算结果(b1-b3)、(b3/b4)等,分别作为一个波段叠加到原始图像中,使之成为对目标地物光谱特征的有益补充。并对不同类型的水体及冰川进行多级、多尺度分割,以满足其对分割尺度的不同要求。分割完成后,综合考虑目标地物的光谱特征、纹理特征、空间结构特征,根据各特征指数的直方图信息,设定合适的阈值,建立了各水体及冰川类型信息提取的知识规则,并结合实地调查对信息提取的精度进行验证,改进了ASTER遥感影像自动快速提取极高海拔区水体及冰川信息的实用模型。  相似文献   

Glacial change in the vicinity of Mt. Qomolangma (Everest), central high Himalayas since 1976     

NIE Yong  ZHANG Yili  LIU Linshan  ZHANG Jiping 《地理学报》2010,20(5):667-686

Glaciers are one of the most important land covers in alpine regions and especially sensitive to global climate change. Remote sensing has proved to be the best method of investigating the extent of glacial variations in remote mountainous areas. Using Landsat thematic mapping (TM) and multi-spectral-scanner (MSS) images from Mt. Qomolangma (Everest) National Nature Preserve (QNNP), central high Himalayas for 1976, 1988 and 2006, we derived glacial extent for these three periods. A combination of object-oriented image interpretation methods, expert knowledge rules and field surveys were employed. Results showed that (1) the glacial area in 2006 was 2710.17 ± 0.011 km2 (about 7.41% of the whole study area), and located mainly to the south and between 4700 m to 6800 m above sea level; (2) from 1976 to 2006, glaciers reduced by 501.91 ± 0.035 km2 and glacial lakes expanded by 36.88 ± 0.035 km2; the rate of glacier retreat was higher in sub-basins on the southern slopes (16.79%) of the Himalayas than on the northern slopes (14.40%); most glaciers retreated, and mainly occurred at an elevation of 4700–6400 m, and the estimated upper limit of the retreat zone is between 6600 m and 6700 m; (3) increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation over the study period are the key factors driving retreat.  相似文献   

Application of support vector machine to synthetic earthquake prediction     

Chun Jiang  Xueli Wei Xiaofeng Cui  Dexiang You Earthquake Administration of Tianjin Municipality  Tianjin  China Tianjin University of Technology  Tianjin  China 《地震学报(英文版)》2009,(3):315-320

This paper introduces the method of support vector machine (SVM) into the field of synthetic earthquake pre-diction, which is a non-linear and complex seismogenic system. As an example, we apply this method to predict the largest annual magnitude for the North China area (30°E-42°E, 108°N-125°N) and the capital region (38°E-41.5°E, 114°N-120°N) on the basis of seismicity parameters and observed precursory data. The corresponding prediction rates for the North China area and the capital region are 64.1% and ...  相似文献   

丹东形变观测洞室改造     

尤权民  姚圣安  迮安民  姚菲菲  陈尚尉  梁永信  隋玉鹏  邓志岩  刘芳彤 《地震地磁观测与研究》2009,30(3):74-79

“十五”期间,为了新增水管仪、伸缩仪,丹东地震台对形变观测洞室进行了环境改造,新建了仪器基墩,解决了建造仪器基墩过程中遇到的施工难题,为水管仪和伸缩仪运行提供了良好的观测条件。文中介绍的方法对其他台站建造仪器基墩有一定借鉴意义。  相似文献